2013 Helping Friendly Crystal Ball- a look beyond

[Brickmythic]

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Here is a quick primer and guide for what sets to invest in 2013.

tl;dr, simply read bold/italic parts

The goal of this guide is to prepare everyone in the Lego community for the projected growth of the popularity of Lego we will see in the next 3 years. We will briefly discuss the inevitable bubble and collapse caused by the immediate surge of certain EOL themes and licenses in the aftermarket and what you can do to protect your investment potential.

In 2008, Lego Batman sets began to retire, and by 2009, the theme was completely EOL, and virtually every set had doubled RRP within a brief holiday season. However Batman continued to increase in value. It was a phenomena that clued many of us into the potential of Lego investing.

Personally I have had some success reselling Lego since 1999 with Star Wars Lego and episode 1 merchandise blitz. Darth Maul and the Vader were the 2 original htf must have figures. I recall customers at TRU fighting over the Sith Star Wars Lego minifigure pack when they were released.

But it wasn't until Lego Batman in 2008 did I take lego investing seriously.

5 years later, and it appears history has repeated itself. This time, the theme is Harry Potter and many sets despite being just recently EOL are already 2x-3x RRP. My gosh! we haven't seen a full holiday season of EOL yet... and HP is already strong.

Within the last few years Lego has become increasingly popular!

From Collecting, to forming LUG Clubs, family fun, to investing, we can all agree these elements of the Lego hobby have also grown!

This has allowed TLG to invest in state of the art networking and communication solutions expediting product at lightning speed!

Lego has experienced great success, factories have popped up all over the globe, and Lego is even made in China now! NO matter how many 70503 and 76000 customers buy, Lego can easily replenish global quantities within hours!

With this technology, Lego can essentially maintain supply and meet demand for their entire line of stocked non exclusive products.
Products and themes swiftly reach end of line and are replaced by another, while another theme or set will continue production due to demand and popularity.

This is drawing lots of attention and excitement to Lego.

We have about 11 months to 2 years before the bubble hits the ceiling, then during Star Wars Episode 7, the notion of Lego Investing will become pop mainstream.

Most comic book/table top games companies/shops/stores will be moving to stronger profits and invest in Lego.

With the current plateau of CCG's/heroclix, shops just arent making money on MTG, Warhammer and heroclix anymore so more will start to turn to Lego. Simply put, CCG's can't bring in enough revenue to brick and mortar shops. most only remain open out of habbit and charity (except chains like Hobbytown) so they will need Lego Superheroes to pay bills.

But Lego minifigures are starting to make these shops money, Comic book stores have already slowly started to sell not only Superheroes but have branched out into other Lego themes.

The Marvel Superhero minifigure collection especially has "mancave" written all over them considering there will be hundreds of POPULAR marvel superheroes to collect over the years. ie the theme won't need a 1,000th version of chrome pink batman.(yes Batman fans will foam at the lips for a chrome pink batman, their mancaves run deep into the ground haha)

Thus your local friendly gaming store/comic shop will have shelfspace and display case for superheroes minifigures.

Remember how years ago in your Mall you had a K.B. Toy Store?

Now its called a Lego Store.

Believe it or not, but the investing bubble we are experiencing now is but a shadow compared to the bubble that is on its way.

To prepare for this bubble, time is of the essence.

Big ticket sets and polybags are the bread and butter for the average lego investor,collector,or reseller

Here is a list by Emazer from the Lego investment thread

1- The big $100 sets Ninjago
2- Friends 3185 & 3315
3-Haunted House
4-Batman 10937 Asylum
5-The New Jabba's Sail Barge
6-The New Attack Gunship
7-Lord of the Rings Helm's
8-Potter Alley 10217
9-Imperial Shuttle 10212
10- POTC Queens Revenge and Pearl.
11- Harry Potter Castle
12-Vampire's Castle
13- The Batman Funhouse, for $40 these will be a great investment, so pick these up whenever you can.
14- The Big Tower Bridge
15- Fire Brigade
16- And The Big Death Star and Super Destroyer
17- And The Falcon 7965 will be a Big Money Maker!!!!!!

more Big ticket picks

Volkswagen Bus
Mercedes Unimog

Small and Medium box sets

First Wave LOTR and Superheroes is going to be very important for all of us to maintain a competitive edge against the upcoming new crop of investors. With the kind of money these guys have, they will be able to corner markets and buyout entire bricklink/amazon stock.

Weathertop
Shelob Attacks
Uruk Hai Army builder
Mines of Moria
Quinjet
Hulk Helicarrier Breakout
Wolverine Chopper Showdown
Captain America Avenging Cycle
Superman Vs Lex
Batcave
Two face Chase
Dynamic Duo Funhouse
Catcycle Chase

Of Star Wars:

Hold on to your EOL Star Wars till episode 7 if you can. With Episode 7, demand will skyrocket for anything thats currently EOL and missed the bubble. but ultimately do what you wish, Lego Star Wars will be coming back around eventually in a major way.

Less iconic but popular Sets like podracers/sith infiltrator that may not seem strong now, will be big then (episode 7) because Lego won't produce another for some time with 3 new movies and whatever else to chose from.

Jabba's Palace
MIllenium Falcon
New Republic Gunship

Monster Fighters is another huge theme for us to get an early start on the power players.

Vampyre Castle
Swamp Creature
Ghost Train
Halloween exclusive minifig set
polybags

and of course Haunted House

Most of us should have our sights on Superheroes,LotR and Monster Fighters.

Jabba's Palace
Rancor Pit
Millenium Falcon
X-wing
Skiff
Battlepacks

are the big timeless star wars sets out now.

Friends, Ninjago and Chima still have strong short term potential, most of us can agree. But whether or not these TLG themes can weather the test of time we will truly see. As an engine to provide short term profit during 2013/2014 Holiday season these themes are huge but looking beyond into 2015 it is tough to see unlike Star Wars, Superheroes, Monster Fighters and LOTR, which are clear long term/long haul winners.

Technic and Creator are still making huge gains. Many of us projected the Lighthouse to shine despite the decline of Modulars and the lackluster Tower Bridge(TB is just a bad set but UK/british demand will still make it profitable years to come its just not that cool, honestly), they are always going to be great sets. Its just the potential is declining in big ticket sets and shifting towards creative practical sets such as Lighthouse.

With the indtroduction of Palace Cinema, Modulars should make a nice comeback, and those that EOL within a year or so should still do well. Afterall, the price per brick is outstanding on these sets considering inflation!


the choice is yours!

Always give to charity and church!
Its not about religion, its about spirituality and realistic happiness.
Be a role model to your peers, you are the builders and teachers.

[SpaceViking]

so, to summarize, stock up on everything except Racers and Technic?

[anakinisvader]

so, to summarize, stock up on everything except Racers and Technic?

What about Prince of Persia?

[Brickmythic]

so, to summarize, stock up on everything except Racers and Technic?

lol YES BUY EVERYTHING! LEGO IS FANTASTIC!

honestly whatever you want bro, you are pretty smart. you know whats up!

Emazers had a good list of bigger sets. the pretty obvious ones. but he's spot on as usual.

my upcoming picks

(because you know crystal balls are hazy and what not, a lot of it has to do with the eye of the beholder)

But I do see LotR and Superheroes first wave doing well. but you'd have to be blind to not see that.

Boromir
Merry
Samwise
stoned on toby leaf frodo
Pippen
Theoden
Haldir

do not have a remake/rehash in the next Lotr wave so Id wager most of the first wave will be htf.


With Marvel Superheroes its easy to tell Captain America And Wolverine will be the biggest sets. Quinjet and Helicarrier will fly out of the reach of many folks budget and this will exhaust the supply of Captain America's Avenging cycle and Wolverines Chopper Showdown. It happened with Batman in 2009 and Harry potter right now:

http://www.amazon.com/LEGO-Harry-Potter ... rry+potter" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.amazon.com/LEGO%C2%AE-Harry- ... itch+match" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

eventually Forbidden Forest/Quidditch will be much closer/comparable in price to Hagrid's Hut/hogwarts due to the volume at which they sell globally being the consistant HP aftermarket top sellers.

As an example lets make up some numbers. Hagrids will be like 125-140 and Forbidden Forest will be around $75. slowly closing the gap. Forbidden Forest will be $75 when Castle or DA will be $400-500.



With DC of course the first Superman set is gold. Arkham asylum. etc..

Also polybags! try to find them on sale!

[Brickmythic]

so, to summarize, stock up on everything except Racers and Technic?

What about Prince of Persia?

haha the ostrich and camel are the only things going for PoP right now.


Ostrich makes for a great mount in fantasy setting castle for orcs or goblins!

[legohunter]

I bought the Ostrich set when it was 50% off. The deal made the parts/pieces free after the mkt value of Ostrich and minifigures. It wasn't that bad buying PoP sets.

[NIGELTTF]

I bought the Ostrich set when it was 50% off. The deal made the parts/pieces free after the mkt value of Ostrich and minifigures. It wasn't that bad buying PoP sets.

Yeah, I bought dozens of them at 75% off. So what if I'll never use the castle stuff and figs, there's plenty good brick;most in the useful colors of tan, caramel, white and black; to justify that price.

Dino, on the other hand....no. Lots of Dinosaurs, wheels, and what brick there is is mostly yellow. Not a lot of useful parts. I look at Dino and wonder how low a price would it have to be for me to justify the purchase....even for investment.

[SlickP]

Dino, on the other hand....no. Lots of Dinosaurs, wheels, and what brick there is is mostly yellow. Not a lot of useful parts. I look at Dino and wonder how low a price would it have to be for me to justify the purchase....even for investment.

I bought (4) Dino HQ from Walmart Clearance for $49 and flipped them quickly for $109.

[skeet318]

What if u got all these sets but you took em out the box and built em for display. Still worth more then retail in a couple of years?

[StClair]

I agree with what most have said about Monster Hunters, Superhero lines (both DC and Marvel) and Lord of the Rings. I LOVED the Monster Hunters and was disappointed that they are ending already. Would have loved to have seen an Invisible Man, Phantom of the Opera, Dr. Jekyll & a hunchback. I bought several Monster Hunter sets to keep for investment BECAUSE.. ready for this?... I really like them. If they don't sell well in the future I'm happy opening them and using the pieces.

Concerns about Lord of the Rings and Superhero's lines....
How long are they going to be around? If they don't last all that long sets like Wolverine's chopper or Superman vs Lex sell very well BUT if they make them year after year it will affect their investment value. I know others have said this.

Me personally... I like to buy sets that I like and that are relatively inexpensive especially if I can buy them on clearance or sale.

[emazers]

The Lord Of The Rings Helm's Deep is done, so if you don't have any you better get them.

[alexb54]

Is this really confirmed? I just bought it, but still am not sure if it will really be gone.

[FenrisAkashi]

Is this really confirmed? I just bought it, but still am not sure if it will really be gone.

They are not being replaced in any of the retail locations I have seen them sold after weeks of being sold out.

[emazers]

The Official Lego Wholesale Order Form has LOTR Helm's Deep, All Monster Fighters except the Haunted House are done being made this month, now that does not mean that they won't be in the stores up to the Holidays, because I am sure they were making these 24/7 up to now.

[Howeesp]

The Lord Of The Rings Helm's Deep is done, so if you don't have any you better get them.

Thanks again. You are the Yoda of reselling.

[toysnbricks957]

NO matter how many 70503 and 76000 customers buy, Lego can easily replenish global quantities within hours!

AND YET THEY'RE NOT NIMBLE ENOUGH TO PUT THE HIATUS ON A REAL STINKER LIKE CHIMA SPEEDORZ. THEY PRACTICALLY GAVE AWAY WAVE 1, BUT COULDN'T STOP PRODUCTION ON WAVE 2.

[DuelPear]

NO matter how many 70503 and 76000 customers buy, Lego can easily replenish global quantities within hours!

AND YET THEY'RE NOT NIMBLE ENOUGH TO PUT THE HIATUS ON A REAL STINKER LIKE CHIMA SPEEDORZ. THEY PRACTICALLY GAVE AWAY WAVE 1, BUT COULDN'T STOP PRODUCTION ON WAVE 2.

Practically? More like literally giving those things away. I had a starter pack I didn't order just randomly tossed in with my last Shop@Home shipment and I've read of other having a similar experience.

[StClair]

I have eight of the starter packs that were included free with order. Last order didn't have one so they must have stopped. It was sad really